Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hellenic Athletic vs Port Darwin — League #193 2026

Hellenic Athletic
Hellenic Athletic
FT
1 – 1
Port Darwin
Port Darwin
8/28/2020League #193League #193 · Round 14Larrakia Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Hellenic Athletic71%
×Draw15%
Port Darwin14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellenic Athletic
3.10
Port Darwin
1.38

Hellenic Athletic creates 125% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Hellenic Athletic
3.10
Port Darwin
1.38

allows per match

Hellenic Athletic
1.38
Port Darwin
3.10

finishing

Hellenic Athletic+0.00on par
Port Darwin+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellenic Athletic ↓

Port Darwin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Hellenic Athletic or draw
86%
Hellenic Athletic or Port Darwin
85%
Draw or Port Darwin
29%

Winning margin

Hellenic Athletic wins by 2+
51%
Port Darwin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hellenic Athletic 1+ goals
95%
Hellenic Athletic 2+ goals
81%
Hellenic Athletic 3+ goals
58%
Port Darwin 1+ goals
75%
Port Darwin 2+ goals
40%
Port Darwin 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hellenic Athletic (draw refunded)
83%
Port Darwin (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellenic Athletic at home — creates 3.10, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

Port Darwin away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellenic Athletic attack 3.10 + Port Darwin defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 3.10

Port Darwin attack 1.38 + Hellenic Athletic defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Hellenic Athletic scores more
71%
level
15%
Port Darwin scores more
14%

Hellenic Athletic at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Hellenic Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #193: Hellenic Athletic 1–1 Port Darwin

Hellenic Athletic and Port Darwin drew 1-1 in League #193 on August 28, 2020.

The match was played at Larrakia Park in Darwin.