Hellas Verona 3–1 Napoli: Result & Stats | Serie A

Hellas Verona

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Napoli

M. Zaccagni 79'

A. Barák 62'

F. Dimarco 34'

H. Lozano 1'

1/24/2021

Serie A · Round 19Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Hellas Verona26%

×Draw30%

Napoli44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hellas VeronaExpected goals in this matchNapoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.21

Hellas Verona

0.85

Napoli

1.21

Napoli creates 42% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 24 away

0.80

creates per match

1.36

1.05

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Hellas Verona

0.80

Napoli

1.36

allows per match

Hellas Verona

1.05

Napoli

0.90

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Hellas Verona-0.17scores less

Napoli+0.06on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Napoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw

56%

Hellas Verona or Napoli

70%

Draw or Napoli

74%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

8%

Napoli wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

57%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

21%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

5%

Napoli 1+ goals

70%

Napoli 2+ goals

34%

Napoli 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

37%

Napoli (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.90 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 0.80 + Napoli defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.85

Napoli attack 1.36 + Hellas Verona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hellas Verona scores more

26%

level

30%

Napoli scores more

44%

Napoli at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

M. Zaccagni

Hellas Verona · F

8.2

Match Events

1'

H. Lozano↳ D. Demme

16'

Diego Demme

34'

F. Dimarco↳ D. Faraoni

54'

Giovanni Di Lorenzo

56'

G. Magnani← F. Dimarco

56'

S. Di Carmine← N. Kalinić

60'

Giangiacomo Magnani

60'

D. Mertens← L. Insigne

62'

A. Barák↳ M. Zaccagni

65'

M. Politano← D. Demme

65'

V. Osimhen← A. Petagna

71'

Kalidou Koulibaly

76'

M. Lovato← K. Günter

79'

M. Zaccagni↳ D. Lazović

80'

Mattia Zaccagni

83'

Daniel Bessa← M. Zaccagni

83'

S. Lobotka← T. Bakayoko

83'

E. Elmas← P. Zieliński

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HellasNapoli

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots12

3Corners3

13Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots12

7On Target2

3Off Target6

4Blocked4

8Inside Box8

6Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

430Total Passes460

336Accurate Passes361

78%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1