Hellas Verona 1–1 Atalanta: Result & Stats

Hellas Verona

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atalanta

M. Pessina 59'

D. Zapata 50'

7/18/2020

Serie A · Round 34Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Hellas Verona30%

×Draw29%

Atalanta41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hellas VeronaExpected goals in this matchAtalanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.21

Hellas Verona

0.99

Atalanta

1.21

Atalanta creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 26 away

0.80

creates per match

1.37

1.05

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Hellas Verona

0.80

Atalanta

1.37

allows per match

Hellas Verona

1.05

Atalanta

1.19

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Hellas Verona-0.17scores less

Atalanta+0.09on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Atalanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw

59%

Hellas Verona or Atalanta

71%

Draw or Atalanta

70%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

11%

Atalanta wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

63%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

26%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

8%

Atalanta 1+ goals

70%

Atalanta 2+ goals

34%

Atalanta 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

42%

Atalanta (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 0.80 + Atalanta defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.99

Atalanta attack 1.37 + Hellas Verona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hellas Verona scores more

30%

level

29%

Atalanta scores more

41%

Atalanta at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91

Duván Zapata

Atalanta · F

8.2

Match Events

41'

S. Amrabat

46'

M. Zaccagni← F. Borini

50'

D. Zapata

59'

M. Pessina

64'

H. Hateboer

69'

J. Palomino← M. Caldara

69'

R. Gosens← T. Castagne

73'

E. Salcedo Mora← S. Di Carmine

73'

D. Lazovic← F. Dimarco

78'

R. Malinovsky← L. Muriel

79'

R. Freuler← M. De Roon

82'

K. Gunter← M. Lovato

84'

M. Pessina

85'

R. Toloi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HellasAtalanta

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots21

7Corners5

15Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots21

8On Target7

4Off Target10

3Blocked4

8Inside Box12

7Outside Box9

Passing

45%Possession55%

362Total Passes430

253Accurate Passes323

70%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

6Saves7

Discipline

15Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1