Hellas Verona 3–2 AS Roma: Result & Stats | Serie A

Hellas Verona

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

AS Roma

D. Faraoni 63'

G. Caprari 54'

A. Barák 49'

I. Ilić 58' (OG)

L. Pellegrini 36'

9/19/2021

Serie A · Round 4Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Hellas Verona32%

×Draw28%

AS Roma40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hellas VeronaExpected goals in this matchAS Roma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.23

Hellas Verona

1.08

AS Roma

1.23

AS Roma creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

0.80

creates per match

1.40

1.05

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Hellas Verona

0.80

AS Roma

1.40

allows per match

Hellas Verona

1.05

AS Roma

1.35

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Hellas Verona-0.17scores less

AS Roma-0.08on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

AS Roma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw

60%

Hellas Verona or AS Roma

72%

Draw or AS Roma

68%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

13%

AS Roma wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

66%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

29%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

10%

AS Roma 1+ goals

71%

AS Roma 2+ goals

35%

AS Roma 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

45%

AS Roma (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.35 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 0.80 + AS Roma defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

AS Roma attack 1.40 + Hellas Verona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hellas Verona scores more

32%

level

28%

AS Roma scores more

40%

AS Roma at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Pellegrini

AS Roma · M

7.9

Match Events

17'

Jordan Veretout

30'

Davide Faraoni

36'

L. Pellegrini↳ R. Karsdorp

46'

G. Magnani← F. Ceccherini

49'

A. Barák

51'

Antonín Barák

54'

G. Caprari↳ I. Ilić

58'

I. IlićOwn goal

63'

D. Faraoni↳ G. Simeone

64'

N. Kalinić← G. Simeone

65'

A. Tameze← Daniel Bessa

65'

Carles Pérez← J. Veretout

65'

S. El Shaarawy← N. Zaniolo

66'

H. Mkhitaryan← E. Shomurodov

71'

Bryan Cristante

77'

Borja Mayoral← R. Calafiori

78'

M. Hongla← G. Caprari

78'

C. Smalling← R. Karsdorp

83'

Martin Hongla

83'

N. Casale← D. Lazović

86'

Nicolò Casale

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HellasAS

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots15

3Corners8

14Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots15

6On Target2

3Off Target5

1Blocked8

4Inside Box7

6Outside Box8

Passing

52%Possession48%

440Total Passes385

342Accurate Passes269

78%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls13

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2