Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hellas Verona vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
AS Roma
AS Roma
Davide Faraoni 21'
Henrikh Mkhitaryan 90'
Diego Perotti 45' (pen)
Justin Kluivert 17'
12/1/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 14Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Hellas Verona30%
×Draw28%
AS Roma41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellas Verona
1.02
AS Roma
1.24

AS Roma creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Hellas Verona
0.80
AS Roma
1.43

allows per match

Hellas Verona
1.05
AS Roma
1.24

finishing

Hellas Verona-0.17scores less
AS Roma-0.08on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw
59%
Hellas Verona or AS Roma
72%
Draw or AS Roma
70%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+
11%
AS Roma wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals
64%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
27%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
8%
AS Roma 1+ goals
71%
AS Roma 2+ goals
35%
AS Roma 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
42%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.24 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 0.80 + AS Roma defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

AS Roma attack 1.43 + Hellas Verona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hellas Verona scores more
30%
level
28%
AS Roma scores more
41%

AS Roma at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
Davide FaraoniHellas VeronaHellas Verona · M
8.4

Match Events

17'
Justin Kluivert↳ Lorenzo Pellegrini
21'
Davide Faraoni↳ Mattia Zaccagni
28'
Lorenzo Pellegrini
35'
Diego Perotti← Justin Kluivert
44'
Koray Günter
45'
Diego PerottiPenalty
61'
Gianluca Mancini
64'
Salvatore Bocchetti
65'
Eddie Salcedo← Valerio Verre
67'
Henrikh Mkhitaryan← Cengiz Ünder
70'
Amadou Diawara
70'
Miguel Veloso← Matteo Pessina
80'
Giampaolo Pazzini← Mattia Zaccagni
86'
Federico Fazio← Edin Džeko
87'
Sofyan Amrabat
90'
Henrikh Mkhitaryan↳ Diego Perotti

Possession

57%Hellas

Shots

8Hellas

Pass accuracy

53%Hellas

Statistics

HellasAS
Overview
57%Possession43%
8Total Shots12
6Corners5
12Fouls14
Shots
8Total Shots12
2On Target5
5Off Target4
1Blocked3
7Inside Box6
1Outside Box6
Passing
57%Possession43%
449Total Passes334
367Accurate Passes243
82%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls14
3Yellow Cards3
8Offsides2

Serie A: Hellas Verona 1–3 AS Roma

AS Roma beat Hellas Verona 3-1 in Serie A on December 1, 2019.

Goals: Justin Kluivert (17'), Davide Faraoni (21'), Diego Perotti (45' pen), Henrikh Mkhitaryan (90').

Hellas Verona controlled possession (57%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.