Hellas Verona U20 vs Monza U20

Hellas Verona U20

Preview

09:00

Monza U20

9/5/2026

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 3

45%

Hellas Verona U20

model favours

45%24%31%

Monza U20 have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hellas Verona U2045%

×Draw24%

Monza U2031%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hellas Verona U20Expected goals in this matchMonza U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.29

Hellas Verona U20

1.61

Monza U20

1.29

Hellas Verona U20 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.55

creates per match

1.26

1.32

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Hellas Verona U20

1.55

Monza U20

1.26

allows per match

Hellas Verona U20

1.32

Monza U20

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hellas Verona U20+0.00on par

Monza U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona U20 ↓

Monza U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hellas Verona U20 or draw

69%

Hellas Verona U20 or Monza U20

76%

Draw or Monza U20

55%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona U20 wins by 2+

23%

Monza U20 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hellas Verona U20 1+ goals

80%

Hellas Verona U20 2+ goals

48%

Hellas Verona U20 3+ goals

22%

Monza U20 1+ goals

72%

Monza U20 2+ goals

37%

Monza U20 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona U20 (draw refunded)

59%

Monza U20 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona U20 at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.32 · 38 matches

Monza U20 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona U20 attack 1.55 + Monza U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.61

Monza U20 attack 1.26 + Hellas Verona U20 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hellas Verona U20 scores more

45%

level

24%

Monza U20 scores more

31%

Hellas Verona U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hellas Verona U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

U20

LLWLW

U20

DLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff