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Heider SV vs SV Eichede — League #744 2026

Heider SV
Heider SV
Preview
12:00
SV Eichede
SV Eichede
4/10/2027League #744League #744 · Schleswig-Holstein - 25
Big match
49%
SV Eichede
model favours
29%22%49%

Top-of-the-table clash — Heider SV 3 vs SV Eichede 1

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Heider SV29%
×Draw22%
SV Eichede49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heider SV
1.42
SV Eichede
1.90

SV Eichede creates 34% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

creates per match

Heider SV
2.10
SV Eichede
2.09

allows per match

Heider SV
1.70
SV Eichede
0.74

finishing

Heider SV+0.00on par
SV Eichede+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heider SV ↓

SV Eichede →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Heider SV or draw
51%
Heider SV or SV Eichede
78%
Draw or SV Eichede
71%

Winning margin

Heider SV wins by 2+
13%
SV Eichede wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Heider SV 1+ goals
76%
Heider SV 2+ goals
41%
Heider SV 3+ goals
17%
SV Eichede 1+ goals
85%
SV Eichede 2+ goals
56%
SV Eichede 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Heider SV (draw refunded)
37%
SV Eichede (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heider SV at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

SV Eichede away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heider SV attack 2.10 + SV Eichede defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.42

SV Eichede attack 2.09 + Heider SV defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Heider SV scores more
29%
level
22%
SV Eichede scores more
49%

SV Eichede at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SV Eichede will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
SV
WLDL
Eichede
LLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Heider SV face SV Eichede (League #744)

League #744 returns with Heider SV hosting SV Eichede. Match starts April 10, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.