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Heidelberg United vs Bentleigh Greens — Victoria NPL 2026

Heidelberg United
Heidelberg United
PST
06:00
Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens
3/28/2020Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 7Olympic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Heidelberg United49%
×Draw24%
Bentleigh Greens28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heidelberg United
1.73
Bentleigh Greens
1.25

Heidelberg United creates 38% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 63 away

creates per match

Heidelberg United
1.80
Bentleigh Greens
1.37

allows per match

Heidelberg United
1.14
Bentleigh Greens
1.67

finishing

Heidelberg United+0.00on par
Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heidelberg United ↓

Bentleigh Greens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Heidelberg United or draw
72%
Heidelberg United or Bentleigh Greens
76%
Draw or Bentleigh Greens
51%

Winning margin

Heidelberg United wins by 2+
26%
Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Heidelberg United 1+ goals
82%
Heidelberg United 2+ goals
52%
Heidelberg United 3+ goals
25%
Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals
71%
Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals
36%
Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Heidelberg United (draw refunded)
64%
Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heidelberg United at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 87 matches

Bentleigh Greens away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.67 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heidelberg United attack 1.80 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.37 + Heidelberg United defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Heidelberg United scores more
49%
level
24%
Bentleigh Greens scores more
28%

Heidelberg United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Heidelberg United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Heidelberg United vs Bentleigh Greens — Match Preview

Heidelberg United face Bentleigh Greens on March 28, 2020 in this Victoria NPL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Heidelberg United host Bentleigh Greens at Olympic Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.