Heidelberg United 1–4 Avondale: Result & Stats

Heidelberg United

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Avondale

8/14/2022

Victoria NPL · Round 25Olympic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Heidelberg United34%

×Draw24%

Avondale42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heidelberg UnitedExpected goals in this matchAvondale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.68

Heidelberg United

1.48

Avondale

1.68

Avondale creates 14% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 87 away

1.80

creates per match

2.22

1.14

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Heidelberg United

1.80

Avondale

2.22

allows per match

Heidelberg United

1.14

Avondale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heidelberg United+0.00on par

Avondale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heidelberg United ↓

Avondale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Heidelberg United or draw

58%

Heidelberg United or Avondale

76%

Draw or Avondale

66%

Winning margin

Heidelberg United wins by 2+

16%

Avondale wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Heidelberg United 1+ goals

77%

Heidelberg United 2+ goals

43%

Heidelberg United 3+ goals

19%

Avondale 1+ goals

81%

Avondale 2+ goals

50%

Avondale 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Heidelberg United (draw refunded)

44%

Avondale (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heidelberg United at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 87 matches

Avondale away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heidelberg United attack 1.80 + Avondale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.48

Avondale attack 2.22 + Heidelberg United defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Heidelberg United scores more

34%

level

24%

Avondale scores more

42%

Avondale at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff