Hegelmann Litauen 1–1 Džiugas Telšiai

Hegelmann Litauen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Džiugas Telšiai

N. Petkevičius 29'

N. Milev 45+6' (pen)

9/26/2021

A Lyga · Round 30Nacionalinės futbolo akademijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Hegelmann Litauen53%

×Draw25%

Džiugas Telšiai23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hegelmann LitauenExpected goals in this matchDžiugas Telšiai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.98

Hegelmann Litauen

1.63

Džiugas Telšiai

0.98

Hegelmann Litauen creates 66% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 100 away

1.74

creates per match

1.00

0.96

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Hegelmann Litauen

1.74

Džiugas Telšiai

1.00

allows per match

Hegelmann Litauen

0.96

Džiugas Telšiai

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hegelmann Litauen+0.00on par

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hegelmann Litauen ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hegelmann Litauen or draw

77%

Hegelmann Litauen or Džiugas Telšiai

75%

Draw or Džiugas Telšiai

47%

Winning margin

Hegelmann Litauen wins by 2+

28%

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hegelmann Litauen 1+ goals

80%

Hegelmann Litauen 2+ goals

48%

Hegelmann Litauen 3+ goals

22%

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

62%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

26%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Hegelmann Litauen (draw refunded)

70%

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hegelmann Litauen at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.96 · 101 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hegelmann Litauen attack 1.74 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.63

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.00 + Hegelmann Litauen defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hegelmann Litauen scores more

53%

level

25%

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

23%

Hegelmann Litauen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hegelmann Litauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Y. Koike

29'

N. Petkevičius

37'

R. Rasimavicius

39'

Pericles

45+5'

M. Fridrikas

45+6'

N. MilevPenalty

46'

J. Mosquera← M. Fridrikas

60'

A. Mika← A. Lipskis

60'

R. Stanulevičius← Ivo Braz

62'

A. Mika

69'

D. Virkšas← Jefferson

77'

J. Fernandes

79'

Alex Negueba← G. Thompson

Hegelmann

Džiugas

1

Survila

22

Fernandes

3

Pushkarov

9

▼

33

5

16

25

77

⚽

Milev

10

▼

Braz

95

▼

Jefferson

31

Plūkas

25

▼

6

32

27

98

8

7

10

▼

Thompson

41

Karashima

28

⚽

Petkeviči

Manager: A. Skerla

46'▲J. Mosquera←▼M. Fridrikas

79'▲Alex Negueba←▼G. Thompson

Hegelmann Litauen substitutes

14Mosquera18Negueba9Raginis11Lekečinskas15Olaosebikan24Supronas38Spence1Deronja

Manager: M. Šluta

60'▲A. Mika←▼A. Lipskis

60'▲R. Stanulevičius←▼Ivo Braz

69'▲D. Virkšas←▼Jefferson

Džiugas Telšiai substitutes

4Mika6Stanulevičius15Virkšas7Vasiliauskas31Paukštė70Mačaitis92Lazdinauskas29Arlauskis

A Lyga: Hegelmann Litauen 1–1 Džiugas Telšiai

Hegelmann Litauen and Džiugas Telšiai drew 1-1 in A Lyga on September 26, 2021.

Goals: N. Petkevičius (29'), N. Milev (45+6' pen).

The match was played at Nacionalinės futbolo akademijos stadionas in Kaunas.

Hegelmann Litauen vs Džiugas Telšiai — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

A Lyga: Hegelmann Litauen 1–1 Džiugas Telšiai