Hegelmann Litauen 1–0 Džiugas Telšiai

Hegelmann Litauen

FT

1 – 0

Džiugas Telšiai

3/30/2019

1 Lyga · Round 2Nacionalinės futbolo akademijos stadionas (Kaunas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Hegelmann Litauen50%

×Draw22%

Džiugas Telšiai28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hegelmann LitauenExpected goals in this matchDžiugas Telšiai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.40

Hegelmann Litauen

1.96

Džiugas Telšiai

1.40

Hegelmann Litauen creates 40% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 27 away

2.85

creates per match

1.67

1.12

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Hegelmann Litauen

2.85

Džiugas Telšiai

1.67

allows per match

Hegelmann Litauen

1.12

Džiugas Telšiai

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hegelmann Litauen+0.00on par

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hegelmann Litauen ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Hegelmann Litauen or draw

72%

Hegelmann Litauen or Džiugas Telšiai

78%

Draw or Džiugas Telšiai

50%

Winning margin

Hegelmann Litauen wins by 2+

29%

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hegelmann Litauen 1+ goals

86%

Hegelmann Litauen 2+ goals

58%

Hegelmann Litauen 3+ goals

31%

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

75%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

41%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hegelmann Litauen (draw refunded)

65%

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hegelmann Litauen at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hegelmann Litauen attack 2.85 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.96

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.67 + Hegelmann Litauen defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hegelmann Litauen scores more

50%

level

22%

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

28%

Hegelmann Litauen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hegelmann Litauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff