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Hegelmann Litauen vs Dainava — 1 Lyga 2026

Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
FT
1 – 0
Dainava
Dainava
I. Dedura 80'
10/25/20201 Lyga1 Lyga · Promotion Round - 6Nacionalinės futbolo akademijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Hegelmann Litauen53%
×Draw22%
Dainava26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hegelmann Litauen
1.99
Dainava
1.33

Hegelmann Litauen creates 50% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 45 away

creates per match

Hegelmann Litauen
2.85
Dainava
1.53

allows per match

Hegelmann Litauen
1.12
Dainava
1.13

finishing

Hegelmann Litauen+0.00on par
Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hegelmann Litauen ↓

Dainava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hegelmann Litauen or draw
74%
Hegelmann Litauen or Dainava
78%
Draw or Dainava
47%

Winning margin

Hegelmann Litauen wins by 2+
31%
Dainava wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hegelmann Litauen 1+ goals
86%
Hegelmann Litauen 2+ goals
59%
Hegelmann Litauen 3+ goals
32%
Dainava 1+ goals
74%
Dainava 2+ goals
38%
Dainava 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hegelmann Litauen (draw refunded)
67%
Dainava (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hegelmann Litauen at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

Dainava away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hegelmann Litauen attack 2.85 + Dainava defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.99

Dainava attack 1.53 + Hegelmann Litauen defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hegelmann Litauen scores more
53%
level
22%
Dainava scores more
26%

Hegelmann Litauen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hegelmann Litauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'
I. Dedura
90+4'
P. Kiselevskis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hegelmann Litauen vs Dainava

Hegelmann Litauen beat Dainava 1-0 in 1 Lyga on October 25, 2020.

Goals: I. Dedura (80').

The match was played at Nacionalinės futbolo akademijos stadionas in Kaunas.