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Hegelmann II vs Dainava — 1 Lyga 2026

Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
Preview
16:00
Dainava
Dainava
9/18/20261 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 25
47%
Dainava
model favours
28%25%47%

Hegelmann II score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hegelmann II28%
×Draw25%
Dainava47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hegelmann II
1.17
Dainava
1.59

Dainava creates 36% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 45 away

creates per match

Hegelmann II
1.21
Dainava
1.53

allows per match

Hegelmann II
1.66
Dainava
1.13

finishing

Hegelmann II+0.00on par
Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hegelmann II ↓

Dainava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hegelmann II or draw
53%
Hegelmann II or Dainava
75%
Draw or Dainava
72%

Winning margin

Hegelmann II wins by 2+
11%
Dainava wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Hegelmann II 1+ goals
69%
Hegelmann II 2+ goals
33%
Hegelmann II 3+ goals
11%
Dainava 1+ goals
80%
Dainava 2+ goals
47%
Dainava 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hegelmann II (draw refunded)
37%
Dainava (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hegelmann II at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

Dainava away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hegelmann II attack 1.21 + Dainava defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Dainava attack 1.53 + Hegelmann II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hegelmann II scores more
28%
level
25%
Dainava scores more
47%

Dainava at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dainava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dainava are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Dainava have scored in 11 games running
  • 50% of Dainava’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 67% of Dainava’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
LLLWW
Dainava
WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hegelmann II vs Dainava — Match Preview

Hegelmann II face Dainava on September 18, 2026 in this 1 Lyga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.