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Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar — Eredivisie 2018

Heerenveen
Heerenveen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
1/28/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 19Abe Lenstra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Heerenveen46%
×Draw23%
AZ Alkmaar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heerenveen
1.76
AZ Alkmaar
1.42

Heerenveen creates 24% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

creates per match

Heerenveen
1.87
AZ Alkmaar
1.67

allows per match

Heerenveen
1.16
AZ Alkmaar
1.65

finishing

Heerenveen+0.01on par
AZ Alkmaar-0.24scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heerenveen ↓

AZ Alkmaar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Heerenveen or draw
69%
Heerenveen or AZ Alkmaar
77%
Draw or AZ Alkmaar
54%

Winning margin

Heerenveen wins by 2+
24%
AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Heerenveen 1+ goals
83%
Heerenveen 2+ goals
52%
Heerenveen 3+ goals
26%
AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals
76%
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
41%
AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Heerenveen (draw refunded)
59%
AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heerenveen at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.16 · 16 matches

AZ Alkmaar away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.65 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heerenveen attack 1.87 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.76

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.67 + Heerenveen defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Heerenveen scores more
46%
level
23%
AZ Alkmaar scores more
31%

Heerenveen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Heerenveen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Heerenveen 2–2 AZ Alkmaar

Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar drew 2-2 in Eredivisie on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Abe Lenstra Stadion in Heerenveen.