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Hebar 1918 vs Dobrudzha — Second League 2018

Hebar 1918
Hebar 1918
Preview
15:00
Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
9/26/2026Second LeagueSecond League · Round 11Stadion Georgi Benkovski
50%
Hebar 1918
model favours
50%25%24%
1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Hebar 191850%
×Draw25%
Dobrudzha24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar 1918
1.57
Dobrudzha
1.01

Hebar 1918 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 101 away

creates per match

Hebar 1918
1.75
Dobrudzha
0.89

allows per match

Hebar 1918
1.12
Dobrudzha
1.40

finishing

Hebar 1918+0.00on par
Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar 1918 ↓

Dobrudzha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hebar 1918 or draw
76%
Hebar 1918 or Dobrudzha
75%
Draw or Dobrudzha
50%

Winning margin

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+
26%
Dobrudzha wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hebar 1918 1+ goals
79%
Hebar 1918 2+ goals
46%
Hebar 1918 3+ goals
21%
Dobrudzha 1+ goals
64%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
27%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)
67%
Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar 1918 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.12 · 59 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.40 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar 1918 attack 1.75 + Dobrudzha defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.57

Dobrudzha attack 0.89 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hebar 1918 scores more
50%
level
25%
Dobrudzha scores more
24%

Hebar 1918 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hebar 1918 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
1918
LLLD
Dobrudzha
LDDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hebar 1918 host Dobrudzha

September 26, 2026: Hebar 1918 take on Dobrudzha in Second League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hebar 1918 host Dobrudzha at Stadion Georgi Benkovski.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.