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Heaven Eleven vs LISCR — LFA First Division 2020

Heaven Eleven
Heaven Eleven
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
LISCR
LISCR
4/17/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 25Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Heaven Eleven37%
×Draw25%
LISCR38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heaven Eleven
1.45
LISCR
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 73 away

creates per match

Heaven Eleven
1.72
LISCR
1.62

allows per match

Heaven Eleven
1.31
LISCR
1.18

finishing

Heaven Eleven+0.00on par
LISCR+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heaven Eleven ↓

LISCR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Heaven Eleven or draw
62%
Heaven Eleven or LISCR
75%
Draw or LISCR
63%

Winning margin

Heaven Eleven wins by 2+
17%
LISCR wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Heaven Eleven 1+ goals
77%
Heaven Eleven 2+ goals
42%
Heaven Eleven 3+ goals
18%
LISCR 1+ goals
77%
LISCR 2+ goals
43%
LISCR 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)
49%
LISCR (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heaven Eleven at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

LISCR away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.18 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heaven Eleven attack 1.72 + LISCR defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.45

LISCR attack 1.62 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Heaven Eleven scores more
37%
level
25%
LISCR scores more
38%

LISCR at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "LISCR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Heaven Eleven 1–3 LISCR

LISCR beat Heaven Eleven 3-1 in LFA First Division on April 17, 2023.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.