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Hearts of Oak vs Medeama — Premier League 2019

Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Medeama
Medeama
I. Salifu 31' (pen)
K. Donsu 89'
J. Sowah 85', 42'
V. Atingah 34' (pen)
D. Fordjour 17'
5/21/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Hearts of Oak47%
×Draw30%
Medeama23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hearts of Oak
1.21
Medeama
0.75

Hearts of Oak creates 61% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 112 away

creates per match

Hearts of Oak
1.24
Medeama
0.85

allows per match

Hearts of Oak
0.65
Medeama
1.19

finishing

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par
Medeama+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hearts of Oak ↓

Medeama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Hearts of Oak or draw
77%
Hearts of Oak or Medeama
70%
Draw or Medeama
53%

Winning margin

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+
21%
Medeama wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals
70%
Hearts of Oak 2+ goals
34%
Hearts of Oak 3+ goals
12%
Medeama 1+ goals
53%
Medeama 2+ goals
17%
Medeama 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)
67%
Medeama (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hearts of Oak at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.65 · 110 matches

Medeama away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.19 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hearts of Oak attack 1.24 + Medeama defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Medeama attack 0.85 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hearts of Oak scores more
47%
level
30%
Medeama scores more
23%

Hearts of Oak at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hearts of Oak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
D. Fordjour
31'
I. SalifuPenalty
34'
V. AtingahPenalty
42'
J. Sowah
46'
F. Adjetey← F. Adjetey
46'
R. Addo Sowah← B. York
46'
Y. Ouatching← K. Obeng Junior
69'
G. Awako← G. Awako
69'
G. Asante← G. Asante
85'
J. Sowah
89'
K. Donsu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hearts of Oak vs Medeama

Medeama beat Hearts of Oak 5-1 in Premier League on May 21, 2023.

Goals: D. Fordjour (17'), I. Salifu (31' pen), V. Atingah (34' pen), J. Sowah (42', 85'), K. Donsu (89').

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.