Hearts of Oak 2–3 Asante Kotoko: Result & Stats

Hearts of Oak

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Asante Kotoko

12/10/2023

Premier League · Round 14Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Hearts of Oak42%

×Draw32%

Asante Kotoko25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hearts of OakExpected goals in this matchAsante Kotoko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.75

Hearts of Oak

1.06

Asante Kotoko

0.75

Hearts of Oak creates 41% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 109 away

1.25

creates per match

0.84

0.66

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Hearts of Oak

1.25

Asante Kotoko

0.84

allows per match

Hearts of Oak

0.66

Asante Kotoko

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hearts of Oak ↓

Asante Kotoko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Hearts of Oak or draw

75%

Hearts of Oak or Asante Kotoko

68%

Draw or Asante Kotoko

58%

Winning margin

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+

17%

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals

65%

Hearts of Oak 2+ goals

29%

Hearts of Oak 3+ goals

9%

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals

53%

Asante Kotoko 2+ goals

17%

Asante Kotoko 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)

62%

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hearts of Oak at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.87 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hearts of Oak attack 1.25 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.06

Asante Kotoko attack 0.84 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hearts of Oak scores more

42%

level

32%

Asante Kotoko scores more

25%

Hearts of Oak at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hearts of Oak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff