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Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers — Premiership 2018

Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rangers
Rangers
12/6/2023PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 16Tynecastle Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Heart Of Midlothian42%
×Draw27%
Rangers31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heart Of Midlothian
1.37
Rangers
1.13

Heart Of Midlothian creates 21% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

Heart Of Midlothian
1.43
Rangers
1.48

allows per match

Heart Of Midlothian
0.77
Rangers
1.31

finishing

Heart Of Midlothian+0.57scores more
Rangers+0.67scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heart Of Midlothian ↓

Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Heart Of Midlothian or draw
69%
Heart Of Midlothian or Rangers
73%
Draw or Rangers
58%

Winning margin

Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+
20%
Rangers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals
75%
Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals
40%
Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals
16%
Rangers 1+ goals
68%
Rangers 2+ goals
31%
Rangers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)
58%
Rangers (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heart Of Midlothian at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.77 · 10 matches

Rangers away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heart Of Midlothian attack 1.43 + Rangers defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.37

Rangers attack 1.48 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Heart Of Midlothian scores more
42%
level
27%
Rangers scores more
31%

Heart Of Midlothian at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Heart Of Midlothian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership: Heart Of Midlothian 0–1 Rangers

Rangers beat Heart Of Midlothian 1-0 in Premiership on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Tynecastle Park in Edinburgh.