Heart Of Midlothian 1–3 Rangers: Result & Stats

Heart Of Midlothian

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Rangers

L. Shankland 81' (pen)

J. Tavernier 64', 50' (pen)

S. Wright 55'

11/5/2023

League Cup · Semi-finalsHampden Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Heart Of Midlothian43%

×Draw23%

Rangers34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heart Of MidlothianExpected goals in this matchRangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.55

Heart Of Midlothian

1.76

Rangers

1.55

Heart Of Midlothian creates 14% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

2.64

creates per match

2.25

0.86

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Heart Of Midlothian

2.64

Rangers

2.25

allows per match

Heart Of Midlothian

0.86

Rangers

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heart Of Midlothian+0.00on par

Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heart Of Midlothian ↓

Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Heart Of Midlothian or draw

66%

Heart Of Midlothian or Rangers

77%

Draw or Rangers

57%

Winning margin

Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+

23%

Rangers wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals

83%

Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals

52%

Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals

26%

Rangers 1+ goals

79%

Rangers 2+ goals

46%

Rangers 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)

56%

Rangers (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heart Of Midlothian at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Rangers away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heart Of Midlothian attack 2.64 + Rangers defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.76

Rangers attack 2.25 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Heart Of Midlothian scores more

43%

level

23%

Rangers scores more

34%

Heart Of Midlothian at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Heart Of Midlothian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Todd Cantwell

45+2'

Stephen Kingsley

46'

S. Wright← T. Cantwell

50'

J. TavernierPenalty

55'

S. Wright↳ Danilo

61'

Y. Oda← J. Grant

61'

A. Forrest← T. Sibbick

62'

Kye Rowles

64'

J. Tavernier

73'

L. Boyce← K. Vargas

73'

C. Devlin← B. Baningime

77'

T. Lawrence← S. Lammers

77'

C. Dessers← Danilo

77'

B. Davies← L. Balogun

78'

Stephen Kingsley

78'

Stephen Kingsley

81'

L. ShanklandPenalty

86'

A. Denholm← C. Nieuwenhof

88'

Cameron Devlin

90+1'

Aidan Denholm

90+6'

D. Sterling← J. Tavernier

Heart3-4-1-2

Rangers4-2-3-1

99

A

▼

Danilo

19

Sima

14

▼

Lammers

13

▼

4

8

31

27

▼

Balogun

6

Goldson

2

⚽2

▼

1

28

15

2

3

19

8

▼

Nieuwenho

7

▼

Grant

21

▼

Sibbick

6

▼

Baningime

77

▼

Vargas

9

⚽

Shankland

Manager: S. Naismith

61'▲Y. Oda←▼J. Grant

61'▲A. Forrest←▼T. Sibbick

73'▲L. Boyce←▼K. Vargas

73'▲C. Devlin←▼B. Baningime

86'▲A. Denholm←▼C. Nieuwenhof

Heart Of Midlothian substitutes

11Oda17Forrest10Boyce14Devlin22Denholm38Forrester12McGovern16Halliday5Haring

Manager: P. Clement

46'▲S. Wright←▼T. Cantwell

77'▲T. Lawrence←▼S. Lammers

77'▲C. Dessers←▼Danilo

77'▲B. Davies←▼L. Balogun

90+6'▲D. Sterling←▼J. Tavernier

Rangers substitutes

23Wright11Lawrence9Dessers26Davies21Sterling3Yılmaz28McCrorie15Cifuentes45McCausland