Heart Of Midlothian 1–1 Kilmarnock: Result & Stats

Heart Of Midlothian

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kilmarnock

K. Vargas 10'

M. Watkins 67'

3/30/2024

Premiership · 1st Phase - 31Tynecastle Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Heart Of Midlothian56%

×Draw24%

Kilmarnock20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heart Of MidlothianExpected goals in this matchKilmarnock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.88

Heart Of Midlothian

1.66

Kilmarnock

0.88

Heart Of Midlothian creates 89% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.42

creates per match

0.96

0.80

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Heart Of Midlothian

1.42

Kilmarnock

0.96

allows per match

Heart Of Midlothian

0.80

Kilmarnock

1.90

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Heart Of Midlothian+0.43scores more

Kilmarnock+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heart Of Midlothian ↓

Kilmarnock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Heart Of Midlothian or draw

80%

Heart Of Midlothian or Kilmarnock

76%

Draw or Kilmarnock

44%

Winning margin

Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+

30%

Kilmarnock wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals

81%

Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals

49%

Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals

23%

Kilmarnock 1+ goals

59%

Kilmarnock 2+ goals

22%

Kilmarnock 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)

74%

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heart Of Midlothian at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.80 · 13 matches

Kilmarnock away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.90 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heart Of Midlothian attack 1.42 + Kilmarnock defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.66

Kilmarnock attack 0.96 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Heart Of Midlothian scores more

56%

level

24%

Kilmarnock scores more

20%

Heart Of Midlothian at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Heart Of Midlothian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

D. Armstrong

Kilmarnock · M

7.6

Match Events

10'

K. Vargas↳ L. Shankland

27'

Frankie Kent

28'

Danny Armstrong

54'

D. Watson← L. Donnelly

63'

Robbie Deas

65'

Alex Cochrane

67'

M. Watkins↳ K. Vassell

71'

B. McKay← J. Grant

71'

K. Rowles← A. Cochrane

71'

C. Devlin← M. Tait

74'

C. Ndaba← R. Deas

74'

G. Mackay-Steven← D. Armstrong

74'

K. van Veen← K. Vassell

80'

Y. Oda← A. Forrest

80'

N. Atkinson← D. Lembikisa

88'

R. McKenzie← J. Wright

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HeartKilmarnock

Overview

61%Possession39%

16Total Shots12

7Corners7

5Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots12

6On Target4

5Off Target5

5Blocked3

10Inside Box8

6Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

472Total Passes285

360Accurate Passes190

76%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1