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Heart Of Midlothian vs Kilmarnock — League Cup 2018

Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
8/31/2022League CupLeague Cup · 2nd RoundTynecastle Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Heart Of Midlothian47%
×Draw23%
Kilmarnock30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heart Of Midlothian
1.75
Kilmarnock
1.36

Heart Of Midlothian creates 29% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Heart Of Midlothian
2.64
Kilmarnock
1.86

allows per match

Heart Of Midlothian
0.86
Kilmarnock
0.86

finishing

Heart Of Midlothian+0.00on par
Kilmarnock+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heart Of Midlothian ↓

Kilmarnock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Heart Of Midlothian or draw
70%
Heart Of Midlothian or Kilmarnock
77%
Draw or Kilmarnock
53%

Winning margin

Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+
25%
Kilmarnock wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals
83%
Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals
52%
Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals
25%
Kilmarnock 1+ goals
74%
Kilmarnock 2+ goals
39%
Kilmarnock 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)
61%
Kilmarnock (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heart Of Midlothian at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Kilmarnock away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heart Of Midlothian attack 2.64 + Kilmarnock defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.75

Kilmarnock attack 1.86 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Heart Of Midlothian scores more
47%
level
23%
Kilmarnock scores more
30%

Heart Of Midlothian at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Heart Of Midlothian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heart Of Midlothian vs Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock beat Heart Of Midlothian 1-0 in League Cup on August 31, 2022.

The match was played at Tynecastle Park in Edinburgh.