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Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee Utd — League Cup 2018

Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd
7/12/2019League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 1Tynecastle Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Heart Of Midlothian50%
×Draw23%
Dundee Utd27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heart Of Midlothian
1.82
Dundee Utd
1.28

Heart Of Midlothian creates 42% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

creates per match

Heart Of Midlothian
2.64
Dundee Utd
1.71

allows per match

Heart Of Midlothian
0.86
Dundee Utd
1.00

finishing

Heart Of Midlothian+0.00on par
Dundee Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heart Of Midlothian ↓

Dundee Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Heart Of Midlothian or draw
73%
Heart Of Midlothian or Dundee Utd
77%
Draw or Dundee Utd
50%

Winning margin

Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+
28%
Dundee Utd wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals
84%
Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals
54%
Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals
27%
Dundee Utd 1+ goals
72%
Dundee Utd 2+ goals
37%
Dundee Utd 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)
65%
Dundee Utd (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heart Of Midlothian at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Dundee Utd away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heart Of Midlothian attack 2.64 + Dundee Utd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

Dundee Utd attack 1.71 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Heart Of Midlothian scores more
50%
level
23%
Dundee Utd scores more
27%

Heart Of Midlothian at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Heart Of Midlothian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee Utd

Heart Of Midlothian and Dundee Utd drew 1-1 in League Cup on July 12, 2019.

The match was played at Tynecastle Park in Edinburgh.