Heart Of Midlothian 3–2 Dundee: Result & Stats

Heart Of Midlothian

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Dundee

1/23/2024

Premiership · 1st Phase - 12Tynecastle Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Heart Of Midlothian52%

×Draw26%

Dundee23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heart Of MidlothianExpected goals in this matchDundee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.94

Heart Of Midlothian

1.55

Dundee

0.94

Heart Of Midlothian creates 65% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

1.43

creates per match

1.10

0.77

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Heart Of Midlothian

1.43

Dundee

1.10

allows per match

Heart Of Midlothian

0.77

Dundee

1.67

+0.57scores more than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Heart Of Midlothian+0.57scores more

Dundee-0.39scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heart Of Midlothian ↓

Dundee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Heart Of Midlothian or draw

77%

Heart Of Midlothian or Dundee

74%

Draw or Dundee

48%

Winning margin

Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+

27%

Dundee wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals

79%

Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals

46%

Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals

20%

Dundee 1+ goals

61%

Dundee 2+ goals

24%

Dundee 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)

69%

Dundee (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heart Of Midlothian at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.77 · 10 matches

Dundee away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.67 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heart Of Midlothian attack 1.43 + Dundee defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Dundee attack 1.10 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Heart Of Midlothian scores more

52%

level

26%

Dundee scores more

23%

Heart Of Midlothian at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Heart Of Midlothian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff