HB Torshavn 2–1 EB / Streymur: Result & Stats

HB Torshavn

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

EB / Streymur

4/19/2024

Meistaradeildin · Round 6Gundadalur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

HB Torshavn69%

×Draw17%

EB / Streymur13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HB TorshavnExpected goals in this matchEB / Streymur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

0.97

HB Torshavn

2.43

EB / Streymur

0.97

HB Torshavn creates 151% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 102 away

2.76

creates per match

1.01

0.93

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

HB Torshavn

2.76

EB / Streymur

1.01

allows per match

HB Torshavn

0.93

EB / Streymur

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HB Torshavn+0.00on par

EB / Streymur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HB Torshavn ↓

EB / Streymur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

HB Torshavn or draw

87%

HB Torshavn or EB / Streymur

83%

Draw or EB / Streymur

31%

Winning margin

HB Torshavn wins by 2+

47%

EB / Streymur wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

HB Torshavn 1+ goals

91%

HB Torshavn 2+ goals

69%

HB Torshavn 3+ goals

43%

EB / Streymur 1+ goals

62%

EB / Streymur 2+ goals

25%

EB / Streymur 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

HB Torshavn (draw refunded)

84%

EB / Streymur (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HB Torshavn at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.93 · 103 matches

EB / Streymur away — creates 1.01, concedes 2.11 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HB Torshavn attack 2.76 + EB / Streymur defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.43

EB / Streymur attack 1.01 + HB Torshavn defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

HB Torshavn scores more

69%

level

17%

EB / Streymur scores more

13%

HB Torshavn at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "HB Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff