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HB Torshavn vs B36 Torshavn — Meistaradeildin 2019

HB Torshavn
HB Torshavn
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
B36 Torshavn
B36 Torshavn
5/5/2024MeistaradeildinMeistaradeildin · Round 8Gundadalur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

HB Torshavn50%
×Draw22%
B36 Torshavn29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HB Torshavn
2.01
B36 Torshavn
1.48

HB Torshavn creates 36% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 102 away

creates per match

HB Torshavn
2.76
B36 Torshavn
2.03

allows per match

HB Torshavn
0.93
B36 Torshavn
1.26

finishing

HB Torshavn+0.00on par
B36 Torshavn+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HB Torshavn ↓

B36 Torshavn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

HB Torshavn or draw
71%
HB Torshavn or B36 Torshavn
78%
Draw or B36 Torshavn
50%

Winning margin

HB Torshavn wins by 2+
29%
B36 Torshavn wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

HB Torshavn 1+ goals
87%
HB Torshavn 2+ goals
59%
HB Torshavn 3+ goals
32%
B36 Torshavn 1+ goals
77%
B36 Torshavn 2+ goals
43%
B36 Torshavn 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

HB Torshavn (draw refunded)
64%
B36 Torshavn (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HB Torshavn at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.93 · 103 matches

B36 Torshavn away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HB Torshavn attack 2.76 + B36 Torshavn defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 2.01

B36 Torshavn attack 2.03 + HB Torshavn defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

HB Torshavn scores more
50%
level
22%
B36 Torshavn scores more
29%

HB Torshavn at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "HB Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HB Torshavn vs B36 Torshavn

HB Torshavn beat B36 Torshavn 2-1 in Meistaradeildin on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Gundadalur in Tórshavn, Streymoy.