HB Torshavn 2–1 AB: Result & Stats | Løgmanssteypid

HB Torshavn

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AB

Á. Samuelsen 82'

P. Petersen 73'

M. Lindh 1'

5/18/2022

Løgmanssteypid · Quarter-finalsGundadalur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

HB Torshavn81%

×Draw12%

AB7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HB TorshavnExpected goals in this matchAB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

0.78

HB Torshavn

2.96

AB

0.78

HB Torshavn creates 279% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

2.64

creates per match

0.71

0.86

allows per match

3.29

creates per match

HB Torshavn

2.64

AB

0.71

allows per match

HB Torshavn

0.86

AB

3.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HB Torshavn+0.00on par

AB+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HB Torshavn ↓

AB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

HB Torshavn or draw

93%

HB Torshavn or AB

88%

Draw or AB

19%

Winning margin

HB Torshavn wins by 2+

61%

AB wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

HB Torshavn 1+ goals

95%

HB Torshavn 2+ goals

79%

HB Torshavn 3+ goals

55%

AB 1+ goals

54%

AB 2+ goals

18%

AB 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

HB Torshavn (draw refunded)

92%

AB (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HB Torshavn at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

AB away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HB Torshavn attack 2.64 + AB defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.96

AB attack 0.71 + HB Torshavn defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

HB Torshavn scores more

81%

level

12%

AB scores more

7%

HB Torshavn at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "HB Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

M. Lindh

17'

Á. Samuelsen← H. Hansen

46'

Á. Jónsson← J. Thomsen

73'

P. Petersen

82'

Á. Samuelsen

86'

B. Petersen← A. Mársico

88'

E. Mouritsen← S. Radosavljević

HB

AB

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: D. Savic

17'▲Á. Samuelsen←▼H. Hansen

46'▲Á. Jónsson←▼J. Thomsen

88'▲E. Mouritsen←▼S. Radosavljević

HB Torshavn substitutes

SamuelsenJónssonMouritsenDamMørkGuttesenSörensen

Manager: S. Hentze

86'▲B. Petersen←▼A. Mársico

AB substitutes

PetersenJákupssonReynslágStenbergGrossSkálaHøvdanum

HB Torshavn 2 – 1 AB

HB Torshavn beat AB 2-1 in Løgmanssteypid on May 18, 2022.

Goals: M. Lindh (1'), P. Petersen (73'), Á. Samuelsen (82').

The match was played at Gundadalur in Tórshavn, Streymoy.

HB Torshavn vs AB — Løgmanssteypid 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

HB Torshavn 2 – 1 AB