HB Torshavn 11–0 AB: Result & Stats

HB Torshavn

FT

11 – 0

HT: 5 – 0

AB

D. Í Soylu 90', 65', 51'

A. Justinussen 88', 84'

M. Dahl 48', 34', 5'

J. Breckmann 45' (OG)

B. Wardum 24'

M. Nygaard 11'

8/12/2020

Meistaradeildin · Round 16Tórsvøllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

HB Torshavn74%

×Draw15%

AB11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HB TorshavnExpected goals in this matchAB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.72

0.94

HB Torshavn

2.72

AB

0.94

HB Torshavn creates 189% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 62 away

2.76

creates per match

0.94

0.93

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

HB Torshavn

2.76

AB

0.94

allows per match

HB Torshavn

0.93

AB

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HB Torshavn+0.00on par

AB+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HB Torshavn ↓

AB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

HB Torshavn or draw

89%

HB Torshavn or AB

85%

Draw or AB

26%

Winning margin

HB Torshavn wins by 2+

53%

AB wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

HB Torshavn 1+ goals

93%

HB Torshavn 2+ goals

75%

HB Torshavn 3+ goals

50%

AB 1+ goals

61%

AB 2+ goals

24%

AB 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

HB Torshavn (draw refunded)

87%

AB (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HB Torshavn at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.93 · 103 matches

AB away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.69 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HB Torshavn attack 2.76 + AB defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.72

AB attack 0.94 + HB Torshavn defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

HB Torshavn scores more

74%

level

15%

AB scores more

11%

HB Torshavn at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "HB Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

11'

24'

34'

35'

E. Christiansson← G. Drangastein

45'

J. BreckmannOwn goal

48'

M. Dahl

51'

D. Í Soylu

54'

60'

D. Tshiembe← H. Hansen

64'

J. P. Breckmann

65'

D. Í Soylu

70'

A. Justinussen← R. Joensen

75'

R. Rasmussen← B. Petersen

82'

T. Jensen← S. Chukwudi

84'

A. Justinussen

88'

A. Justinussen

90'

D. Í Soylu

HB

AB

🥅

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽3

⚽

▼

⚽3

Manager: J. Askou

60'▲D. Tshiembe←▼H. Hansen

70'▲A. Justinussen←▼R. Joensen

82'▲T. Jensen←▼S. Chukwudi

HB Torshavn substitutes

TshiembeJustinussenJensenDamHøjgaardSchindlerDalbúð

Manager: T. Brimsvík

35'▲E. Christiansson←▼G. Drangastein

75'▲R. Rasmussen←▼B. Petersen

AB substitutes

ChristianssonRasmussenRóasonSamuelsenGuttesenEyðsteinssonHøvdanum