Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

HB Torshavn vs 07 Vestur — Løgmanssteypid 2019

HB Torshavn
HB Torshavnadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
07 Vestur
07 Vestur
10/4/2023LøgmanssteypidLøgmanssteypid · Semi-finalsGundadalur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

HB Torshavn71%
×Draw16%
07 Vestur13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HB Torshavn
2.57
07 Vestur
0.99

HB Torshavn creates 160% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

creates per match

HB Torshavn
2.64
07 Vestur
1.13

allows per match

HB Torshavn
0.86
07 Vestur
2.50

finishing

HB Torshavn+0.00on par
07 Vestur+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HB Torshavn ↓

07 Vestur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

HB Torshavn or draw
87%
HB Torshavn or 07 Vestur
84%
Draw or 07 Vestur
29%

Winning margin

HB Torshavn wins by 2+
49%
07 Vestur wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

HB Torshavn 1+ goals
92%
HB Torshavn 2+ goals
72%
HB Torshavn 3+ goals
47%
07 Vestur 1+ goals
63%
07 Vestur 2+ goals
26%
07 Vestur 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

HB Torshavn (draw refunded)
85%
07 Vestur (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HB Torshavn at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

07 Vestur away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HB Torshavn attack 2.64 + 07 Vestur defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.57

07 Vestur attack 1.13 + HB Torshavn defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

HB Torshavn scores more
71%
level
16%
07 Vestur scores more
13%

HB Torshavn at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "HB Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HB Torshavn vs 07 Vestur

HB Torshavn beat 07 Vestur 2-1 in Løgmanssteypid on October 4, 2023.

The match was played at Gundadalur in Tórshavn, Streymoy.