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Havlíčkův Brod vs Velké Meziříčí — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Havlíčkův Brod
Havlíčkův Brod
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Velké Meziříčí
Velké Meziříčí
11/4/20234. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 14Stadion Na Losích

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Havlíčkův Brod47%
×Draw23%
Velké Meziříčí30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havlíčkův Brod
1.81
Velké Meziříčí
1.41

Havlíčkův Brod creates 28% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 45 away

creates per match

Havlíčkův Brod
1.71
Velké Meziříčí
1.33

allows per match

Havlíčkův Brod
1.49
Velké Meziříčí
1.91

finishing

Havlíčkův Brod+0.00on par
Velké Meziříčí+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havlíčkův Brod ↓

Velké Meziříčí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Havlíčkův Brod or draw
70%
Havlíčkův Brod or Velké Meziříčí
77%
Draw or Velké Meziříčí
53%

Winning margin

Havlíčkův Brod wins by 2+
26%
Velké Meziříčí wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Havlíčkův Brod 1+ goals
84%
Havlíčkův Brod 2+ goals
54%
Havlíčkův Brod 3+ goals
27%
Velké Meziříčí 1+ goals
76%
Velké Meziříčí 2+ goals
41%
Velké Meziříčí 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Havlíčkův Brod (draw refunded)
61%
Velké Meziříčí (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havlíčkův Brod at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

Velké Meziříčí away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havlíčkův Brod attack 1.71 + Velké Meziříčí defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.81

Velké Meziříčí attack 1.33 + Havlíčkův Brod defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Havlíčkův Brod scores more
47%
level
23%
Velké Meziříčí scores more
30%

Havlíčkův Brod at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Havlíčkův Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Havlíčkův Brod vs Velké Meziříčí

Velké Meziříčí beat Havlíčkův Brod 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Na Losích in Havlíčkův Brod.