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Havadar vs Malavan — Azadegan League 2018

Havadar
Havadar
FT
2 – 0
Malavan
Malavan
S. Rezania 90+5'
M. Mohammadi 59'
6/1/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 27Ghadir Tehran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Havadar48%
×Draw30%
Malavan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havadar
1.21
Malavan
0.72

Havadar creates 68% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Havadar
1.35
Malavan
0.73

allows per match

Havadar
0.71
Malavan
1.06

finishing

Havadar+0.00on par
Malavan+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havadar ↓

Malavan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Havadar or draw
78%
Havadar or Malavan
70%
Draw or Malavan
52%

Winning margin

Havadar wins by 2+
21%
Malavan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Havadar 1+ goals
70%
Havadar 2+ goals
34%
Havadar 3+ goals
12%
Malavan 1+ goals
51%
Malavan 2+ goals
16%
Malavan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Havadar (draw refunded)
68%
Malavan (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havadar at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Malavan away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havadar attack 1.35 + Malavan defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Malavan attack 0.73 + Havadar defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Havadar scores more
48%
level
30%
Malavan scores more
22%

Havadar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Havadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
M. Mohammadi
90+4'
90+5'
S. Rezania

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Havadar 2–0 Malavan

Havadar beat Malavan 2-0 in Azadegan League on June 1, 2021.

Goals: M. Mohammadi (59'), S. Rezania (90+5').

The match was played at Ghadir Tehran Stadium in Tehran.