Havadar 0–0 Aluminium Arak: Result & Stats

Havadar

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Aluminium Arak

11/24/2021

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 6Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Havadar29%

×Draw33%

Aluminium Arak37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HavadarExpected goals in this matchAluminium Arak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

0.95

Havadar

0.80

Aluminium Arak

0.95

Aluminium Arak creates 19% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 86 away

0.59

creates per match

0.71

1.19

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Havadar

0.59

Aluminium Arak

0.71

allows per match

Havadar

1.19

Aluminium Arak

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Havadar+0.00on par

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havadar ↓

Aluminium Arak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–117%

0–28%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

52%48%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Havadar or draw

63%

Havadar or Aluminium Arak

67%

Draw or Aluminium Arak

71%

Winning margin

Havadar wins by 2+

9%

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Havadar 1+ goals

55%

Havadar 2+ goals

19%

Havadar 3+ goals

5%

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals

61%

Aluminium Arak 2+ goals

25%

Aluminium Arak 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Havadar (draw refunded)

44%

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havadar at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.19 · 59 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.02 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havadar attack 0.59 + Aluminium Arak defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.80

Aluminium Arak attack 0.71 + Havadar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Havadar scores more

29%

level

33%

Aluminium Arak scores more

37%

Aluminium Arak at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

M. Asadi← N. Doroudi

53'

M. Mohammadi← A. Khodamoradi

59'

A. Nouri← A. Naghizadeh

65'

M. Hosseini← A. Abbasi

66'

P. Miri← R. Bagheri

86'

H. Sadeghi← D. Shojaeian

90+3'

A. Houshmand← E. Sharifat

Havadar

Aluminium

1

34

3

4

8

▼

Naghizade

6

Ahmadi

16

Kia

37

▼

Sharifat

13

Alinejad

88

Rahmati

99

▼

1

23

33

6

4

▼

Abbasi

15

▼

21

28

77

27

▼

Bagheri

70

▼

Khodamora

Manager: G. Enayati

53'▲M. Mohammadi←▼A. Khodamoradi

65'▲M. Hosseini←▼A. Abbasi

66'▲P. Miri←▼R. Bagheri

86'▲H. Sadeghi←▼D. Shojaeian

Havadar substitutes

7Mohammadi5Hosseini9Miri19Sadeghi

Manager: R. Khatibi

46'▲M. Asadi←▼N. Doroudi

59'▲A. Nouri←▼A. Naghizadeh

90+3'▲A. Houshmand←▼E. Sharifat

Aluminium Arak substitutes

23Asadi5Nouri68Houshmand