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Haugesund W vs Molde W — Toppserien 2021

Haugesund W
Haugesund W
Preview
13:00
Molde W
Molde W
10/17/2026ToppserienToppserien · Round 19Haugesund Stadion
51%
Molde W
model favours
28%21%51%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
71%
over 2.5 goals
69%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Haugesund W28%
×Draw21%
Molde W51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haugesund W
1.55
Molde W
2.12

Molde W creates 37% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Haugesund W
1.50
Molde W
1.40

allows per match

Haugesund W
2.83
Molde W
1.60

finishing

Haugesund W+0.00on par
Molde W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund W ↓

Molde W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Haugesund W or draw
49%
Haugesund W or Molde W
79%
Draw or Molde W
72%

Winning margin

Haugesund W wins by 2+
13%
Molde W wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Haugesund W 1+ goals
79%
Haugesund W 2+ goals
46%
Haugesund W 3+ goals
20%
Molde W 1+ goals
88%
Molde W 2+ goals
62%
Molde W 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Haugesund W (draw refunded)
36%
Molde W (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Molde W away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund W attack 1.50 + Molde W defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Molde W attack 1.40 + Haugesund W defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Haugesund W scores more
28%
level
21%
Molde W scores more
51%

Molde W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Molde W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 3 meetings averaged 4.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
DWWLL
W
DLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haugesund W vs Molde W — Match Preview

Haugesund W face Molde W on October 17, 2026 in this Toppserien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Haugesund W host Molde W at Haugesund Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.