Haugesund 2–1 Tromso: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Haugesund

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tromso

M. Sande 79'

A. Søderlund 32'

E. Kitolano 19'

9/4/2022

Eliteserien · Round 21Haugesund Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Haugesund35%

×Draw25%

Tromso40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.48

Haugesund

1.38

Tromso

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 38 away

1.14

creates per match

1.33

1.62

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Haugesund

1.14

Tromso

1.33

allows per match

Haugesund

1.62

Tromso

1.61

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Haugesund-0.24scores less

Tromso-0.01on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

60%

Haugesund or Tromso

75%

Draw or Tromso

65%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

16%

Tromso wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

75%

Haugesund 2+ goals

40%

Haugesund 3+ goals

16%

Tromso 1+ goals

77%

Tromso 2+ goals

43%

Tromso 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

47%

Tromso (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 31 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.14 + Tromso defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

Tromso attack 1.33 + Haugesund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Haugesund scores more

35%

level

25%

Tromso scores more

40%

Tromso at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

K. Krygård

Haugesund · D

7.7

Match Events

11'

Waren Hakon Christofer Kamanzi

19'

E. Kitolano↳ L. Nordås

31'

Niklas Vesterlund

32'

A. Søderlund↳ K. Krygård

38'

Jostein Gundersen

46'

J. Tuominen← L. Nordås

58'

L. Nilsen← A. Jenssen

60'

Christos Zafeiris

62'

Magnus Christensen

67'

B. Njie← J. Eskesen

67'

M. Samuelsen← A. Søderlund

73'

F. Winther← S. Opsahl

79'

M. Sande↳ B. Njie

82'

R. Norheim← A. Mikkelsen

83'

N. Walstad← T. Pedersen

90'

U. Fredriksen← M. Christensen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundTromso

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots14

2Corners3

12Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots14

7On Target1

1Off Target9

1Blocked4

8Inside Box11

1Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

476Total Passes531

387Accurate Passes443

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1