Haugesund 3–0 Tromso: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Haugesund

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tromso

S. Liseth 78'

P. Therkildsen 69'

A. Ndour 30'

7/4/2021

Eliteserien · Round 11Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Haugesund35%

×Draw25%

Tromso40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.48

Haugesund

1.38

Tromso

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 38 away

1.14

creates per match

1.33

1.62

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Haugesund

1.14

Tromso

1.33

allows per match

Haugesund

1.62

Tromso

1.61

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Haugesund-0.24scores less

Tromso-0.01on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

60%

Haugesund or Tromso

75%

Draw or Tromso

65%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

16%

Tromso wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

75%

Haugesund 2+ goals

40%

Haugesund 3+ goals

16%

Tromso 1+ goals

77%

Tromso 2+ goals

43%

Tromso 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

47%

Tromso (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 31 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.14 + Tromso defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

Tromso attack 1.33 + Haugesund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Haugesund scores more

35%

level

25%

Tromso scores more

40%

Tromso at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

P. Therkildsen

Haugesund · M

8.6

Match Events

11'

Sakarias Opsahl

30'

A. Ndour↳ A. Stølås

69'

P. Therkildsen↳ K. Velde

70'

R. Norheim← F. Winther

72'

N. Vesterlund← A. Arnarson

78'

S. Liseth↳ P. Therkildsen

80'

F. Knudsen← U. Fredriksen

82'

C. Øyvann← K. Antonsen

82'

J. Rothmann← D. Berntsen

87'

M. Sande← A. Ndour

90+1'

M. Tjoland← S. Liseth

90+1'

K. Gunnarshaug← Bruno Leite

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundTromso

Overview

47%Possession53%

24Total Shots10

5Corners2

9Fouls7

Shots

24Total Shots10

8On Target4

10Off Target3

6Blocked3

20Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

441Total Passes505

366Accurate Passes410

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2