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Haugesund vs Raufoss — 1. Division 2026

Haugesund
Haugesund
Preview
15:00
Raufoss
Raufoss
8/9/20261. Division1. Division · Round 17Haugesund Stadion
63%
Haugesund
model favours
63%19%18%

Both sides lean high-scoring (82% and 78% over 2.5)

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
71%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Haugesund63%
×Draw19%
Raufoss18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haugesund
2.43
Raufoss
1.25

Haugesund creates 94% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 99 away

creates per match

Haugesund
3.00
Raufoss
1.32

allows per match

Haugesund
1.17
Raufoss
1.86

finishing

Haugesund+0.00on par
Raufoss+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 71Under: 2971%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Raufoss →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw
82%
Haugesund or Raufoss
81%
Draw or Raufoss
37%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+
41%
Raufoss wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals
91%
Haugesund 2+ goals
69%
Haugesund 3+ goals
43%
Raufoss 1+ goals
71%
Raufoss 2+ goals
36%
Raufoss 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)
77%
Raufoss (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Raufoss away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.86 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 3.00 + Raufoss defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.43

Raufoss attack 1.32 + Haugesund defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Haugesund scores more
63%
level
19%
Raufoss scores more
18%

Haugesund at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Haugesund have scored in 11 games running
  • 82% of Haugesund’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Haugesund have won 3 in a row
  • 78% of Raufoss’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Raufoss score first in only 28% of matches
  • Both teams score in 72% of Raufoss’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Haugesund
WWLWW
Raufoss
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haugesund face Raufoss (1. Division)

1. Division returns with Haugesund hosting Raufoss. Match starts August 9, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Haugesund host Raufoss at Haugesund Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.