Haugesund 4–4 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Haugesund

FT

4 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

ODD Ballklubb

A. Ammitzbøll 90+3'

I. Koné 90'

J. Kitolano 87' (OG)

U. Fredriksen 5'

M. Bakenga 71', 45+1'

E. Ruud 62'

R. Simovic 42'

9/27/2020

Eliteserien · Round 19Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Haugesund46%

×Draw24%

ODD Ballklubb30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.30

Haugesund

1.68

ODD Ballklubb

1.30

Haugesund creates 29% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 18 away

1.14

creates per match

0.98

1.62

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Haugesund

1.14

ODD Ballklubb

0.98

allows per match

Haugesund

1.62

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Haugesund-0.24scores less

ODD Ballklubb+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

70%

Haugesund or ODD Ballklubb

76%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

54%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

24%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

81%

Haugesund 2+ goals

50%

Haugesund 3+ goals

24%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

73%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

37%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

61%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 31 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.14 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.68

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 + Haugesund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Haugesund scores more

46%

level

24%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

30%

Haugesund at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Bakenga

ODD Ballklubb · F

8.5

Match Events

5'

U. Fredriksen↳ A. Stølås

22'

33'

37'

42'

45'

45+1'

M. Bakenga↳ R. Simovic

50'

F. Nordkvelle← S. Hagen

51'

Benjamin Hansen

62'

E. Ruud

66'

K. Gunnarshaug← T. Pedersen

66'

C. Grindheim← Bruno Leite

71'

Helge Sandvik

71'

M. Bakenga↳ E. Ruud

73'

A. Ammitzbøll← K. Krygård

73'

I. Koné← I. Wadji

85'

K. Jakobsen← R. Simovic

87'

J. KitolanoOwn goal

88'

B. Njie← E. Rashani

90'

I. Koné↳ A. Stølås

90+3'

A. Ammitzbøll↳ C. Grindheim

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundODD

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots11

9Corners7

20Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots11

5On Target6

5Off Target0

4Blocked5

11Inside Box9

3Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

355Total Passes332

264Accurate Passes237

74%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls13

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides4

Eliteserien: Haugesund 4–4 ODD Ballklubb

Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb drew 4-4 in Eliteserien on September 27, 2020.

Goals: U. Fredriksen (5'), R. Simovic (42'), M. Bakenga (45+1', 71'), E. Ruud (62'), J. Kitolano (87' o.g.), I. Koné (90'), A. Ammitzbøll (90+3').

Haugesund controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Haugesund Stadion in Haugesund.

Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Haugesund 4–4 ODD Ballklubb