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Haugesund vs hodd — 1. Division 2026

Haugesund
Haugesund
Preview
16:00
hodd
hodd
10/25/20261. Division1. Division · Round 28Haugesund Stadion
65%
Haugesund
model favours
65%19%16%

Haugesund have scored in 11 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Haugesund65%
×Draw19%
hodd16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haugesund
2.32
hodd
1.06

Haugesund creates 119% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 39 away

creates per match

Haugesund
3.00
hodd
0.95

allows per match

Haugesund
1.17
hodd
1.64

finishing

Haugesund+0.00on par
hodd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

hodd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw
84%
Haugesund or hodd
81%
Draw or hodd
35%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+
42%
hodd wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals
90%
Haugesund 2+ goals
67%
Haugesund 3+ goals
40%
hodd 1+ goals
65%
hodd 2+ goals
29%
hodd 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)
80%
hodd (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

hodd away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 3.00 + hodd defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.32

hodd attack 0.95 + Haugesund defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Haugesund scores more
65%
level
19%
hodd scores more
16%

Haugesund at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 82% of Haugesund’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Haugesund have won 3 in a row
  • Both teams score in 82% of Haugesund’s matches
  • hodd score first in only 31% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Haugesund
WWLWW
hodd
WWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haugesund vs hodd — Match Preview

Haugesund face hodd on October 25, 2026 in this 1. Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Haugesund host hodd at Haugesund Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.