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Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt — Eliteserien 2026

Haugesund
Haugesund
CANC
00:00
Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt
8/14/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 19Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Haugesund25%
×Draw23%
Bodo/Glimt53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haugesund
1.22
Bodo/Glimt
1.89

Bodo/Glimt creates 55% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 40 away

creates per match

Haugesund
1.14
Bodo/Glimt
2.15

allows per match

Haugesund
1.62
Bodo/Glimt
1.30

finishing

Haugesund-0.26scores less
Bodo/Glimt+0.08on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Bodo/Glimt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw
47%
Haugesund or Bodo/Glimt
77%
Draw or Bodo/Glimt
75%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+
10%
Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals
70%
Haugesund 2+ goals
34%
Haugesund 3+ goals
12%
Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals
85%
Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals
56%
Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)
32%
Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 32 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.14 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.22

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.15 + Haugesund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Haugesund scores more
25%
level
23%
Bodo/Glimt scores more
53%

Bodo/Glimt at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haugesund face Bodo/Glimt (Eliteserien)

Eliteserien returns with Haugesund hosting Bodo/Glimt. Match starts August 14, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Haugesund host Bodo/Glimt at Haugesund Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.