Haugesund 1–0 Bodo/Glimt: Result & Stats

Haugesund

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bodo/Glimt

B. Akintola 52'

9/30/2018

Eliteserien · Round 24Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Haugesund25%

×Draw23%

Bodo/Glimt53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchBodo/Glimt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.89

Haugesund

1.22

Bodo/Glimt

1.89

Bodo/Glimt creates 55% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 40 away

1.14

creates per match

2.15

1.62

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Haugesund

1.14

Bodo/Glimt

2.15

allows per match

Haugesund

1.62

Bodo/Glimt

1.30

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Haugesund-0.26scores less

Bodo/Glimt+0.08on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Bodo/Glimt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

47%

Haugesund or Bodo/Glimt

77%

Draw or Bodo/Glimt

75%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

10%

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

70%

Haugesund 2+ goals

34%

Haugesund 3+ goals

12%

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

85%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

56%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

32%

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 32 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.14 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.22

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.15 + Haugesund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Haugesund scores more

25%

level

23%

Bodo/Glimt scores more

53%

Bodo/Glimt at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Isidoro

Bodo/Glimt · D

7.7

Match Events

38'

T. Kallevåg← I. Koné

52'

B. Akintola↳ I. Wadji

77'

Bruno Leite← I. Wadji

79'

M. Tagbajumi← A. Layouni

80'

M. Konradsen← V. Moberg

85'

G. Herrem← Isidoro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundBodo/Glimt

Overview

39%Possession61%

8Total Shots13

5Corners4

10Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots13

3On Target1

0Off Target12

5Blocked0

5Inside Box5

3Outside Box8

Passing

39%Possession61%

336Total Passes510

236Accurate Passes391

70%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls10

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0