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Hassania Agadir vs Kawkab Marrakech — Botola Pro 2025

Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadir
FT
5 – 1
Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
3/27/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 22Stade d'Agadir (Agadir)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hassania Agadir46%
×Draw29%
Kawkab Marrakech26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hassania Agadir
1.29
Kawkab Marrakech
0.89

Hassania Agadir creates 45% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 37 away

creates per match

Hassania Agadir
1.16
Kawkab Marrakech
0.76

allows per match

Hassania Agadir
1.02
Kawkab Marrakech
1.43

finishing

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par
Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hassania Agadir ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hassania Agadir or draw
74%
Hassania Agadir or Kawkab Marrakech
71%
Draw or Kawkab Marrakech
54%

Winning margin

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
21%
Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
72%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
37%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
14%
Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
59%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
22%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
64%
Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hassania Agadir at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.02 · 116 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.43 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hassania Agadir attack 1.16 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.76 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hassania Agadir scores more
46%
level
29%
Kawkab Marrakech scores more
26%

Hassania Agadir at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hassania Agadir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Jalal Daoudi
24'
Ayoub Mallouki
28'
Jalal DaoudiPenalty
63'
Youssef Alfahli
90'
Yassine Dehbi
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Hassania Agadir 5–1 Kawkab Marrakech

Hassania Agadir beat Kawkab Marrakech 5-1 in Botola Pro on March 27, 2019.

Goals: Jalal Daoudi (11', 28' pen), Ayoub Mallouki (24'), Youssef Alfahli (63'), Yassine Dehbi (90').

The match was played at Stade d'Agadir (Agadir).