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Haskovo vs Maritsa Plovdiv — Third League - Southeast 2018

Haskovo
Haskovo
FT
1 – 1
Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
3/2/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 19Stadion Dimitar Kanev (Haskovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Haskovo35%
×Draw26%
Maritsa Plovdiv39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haskovo
1.33
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 81 away

creates per match

Haskovo
1.50
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.59

allows per match

Haskovo
1.24
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.16

finishing

Haskovo+0.00on par
Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haskovo ↓

Maritsa Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Haskovo or draw
61%
Haskovo or Maritsa Plovdiv
74%
Draw or Maritsa Plovdiv
65%

Winning margin

Haskovo wins by 2+
16%
Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Haskovo 1+ goals
74%
Haskovo 2+ goals
38%
Haskovo 3+ goals
15%
Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
76%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
41%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Haskovo (draw refunded)
47%
Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haskovo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Maritsa Plovdiv away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haskovo attack 1.50 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.33

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 1.59 + Haskovo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Haskovo scores more
35%
level
26%
Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
39%

Maritsa Plovdiv at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Maritsa Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haskovo vs Maritsa Plovdiv

Haskovo and Maritsa Plovdiv drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on March 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Kanev (Haskovo).