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Hartford Athletic vs Tulsa Roughnecks — USL Championship 2018

Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
9/10/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 39Trinity Health Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Hartford Athletic45%
×Draw24%
Tulsa Roughnecks31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hartford Athletic
1.66
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.34

Hartford Athletic creates 24% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 130 away

creates per match

Hartford Athletic
1.51
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.19

allows per match

Hartford Athletic
1.50
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.81

finishing

Hartford Athletic+0.00on par
Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartford Athletic ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hartford Athletic or draw
69%
Hartford Athletic or Tulsa Roughnecks
76%
Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks
55%

Winning margin

Hartford Athletic wins by 2+
23%
Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hartford Athletic 1+ goals
81%
Hartford Athletic 2+ goals
49%
Hartford Athletic 3+ goals
23%
Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
74%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
39%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hartford Athletic (draw refunded)
59%
Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartford Athletic at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.50 · 116 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartford Athletic attack 1.51 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.66

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + Hartford Athletic defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hartford Athletic scores more
45%
level
24%
Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
31%

Hartford Athletic at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hartford Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Hartford Athletic 3–2 Tulsa Roughnecks

Hartford Athletic beat Tulsa Roughnecks 3-2 in USL Championship on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Trinity Health Stadium in Hartford.