Harrogate Town 2–2 Walsall: Result & Stats

Harrogate Town

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Walsall

9/19/2020

League Two · Round 2The Keepmoat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Harrogate Town28%

×Draw24%

Walsall48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harrogate TownExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.66

Harrogate Town

1.20

Walsall

1.66

Walsall creates 38% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.20

creates per match

1.78

1.53

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Harrogate Town

1.20

Walsall

1.78

allows per match

Harrogate Town

1.53

Walsall

1.20

-0.64scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Harrogate Town-0.64scores less

Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw

52%

Harrogate Town or Walsall

76%

Draw or Walsall

72%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

11%

Walsall wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

70%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

34%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

12%

Walsall 1+ goals

81%

Walsall 2+ goals

49%

Walsall 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

37%

Walsall (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 9 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.20 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Walsall attack 1.78 + Harrogate Town defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Harrogate Town scores more

28%

level

24%

Walsall scores more

48%

Walsall at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff