Harrogate Town 1–1 Tranmere: Result & Stats

Harrogate Town

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tranmere

M. Daly 37'

J. Turnbull 56'

10/22/2022

League Two · Round 16EnviroVent Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Harrogate Town36%

×Draw26%

Tranmere38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harrogate TownExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.34

Harrogate Town

1.31

Tranmere

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

1.20

creates per match

1.15

1.53

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Harrogate Town

1.20

Tranmere

1.15

allows per match

Harrogate Town

1.53

Tranmere

1.42

-0.64scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Harrogate Town-0.64scores less

Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw

62%

Harrogate Town or Tranmere

74%

Draw or Tranmere

64%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

16%

Tranmere wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

73%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

38%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

14%

Tranmere 1+ goals

74%

Tranmere 2+ goals

39%

Tranmere 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

49%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 9 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.20 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Harrogate Town defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Harrogate Town scores more

36%

level

26%

Tranmere scores more

38%

Tranmere at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

P. Jameson

Harrogate Town · G

7.5

Match Events

37'

M. Daly↳ L. Armstrong

45'

J. Austerfield← J. Mattock

56'

60'

64'

77'

83'

90+4'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HarrogateTranmere

Overview

51%Possession49%

12Total Shots14

6Corners9

14Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots14

1On Target5

6Off Target5

5Blocked4

8Inside Box11

4Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

360Total Passes319

205Accurate Passes183

57%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1