Harrogate Town 0–1 Salford City: Result & Stats

Harrogate Town

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Salford City

J. Wilson 17'

12/19/2020

League Two · Round 19CNG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Harrogate Town34%

×Draw25%

Salford City41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harrogate TownExpected goals in this matchSalford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.54

Harrogate Town

1.39

Salford City

1.54

Salford City creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.20

creates per match

1.55

1.53

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Harrogate Town

1.20

Salford City

1.55

allows per match

Harrogate Town

1.53

Salford City

1.58

-0.64scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Harrogate Town-0.64scores less

Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Salford City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw

59%

Harrogate Town or Salford City

75%

Draw or Salford City

66%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

16%

Salford City wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

75%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

40%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

16%

Salford City 1+ goals

79%

Salford City 2+ goals

45%

Salford City 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

46%

Salford City (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 9 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.20 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Salford City attack 1.55 + Harrogate Town defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Harrogate Town scores more

34%

level

25%

Salford City scores more

41%

Salford City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

V. Hladký

Salford City · G

8.2

Match Events

17'

J. Wilson↳ B. Thomas-Asante

36'

Connor Kirby

43'

Warren Burrell

73'

L. Kerry← G. Thomson

74'

Bruno Andrade← B. Thomas-Asante

81'

Ashley Eastham

82'

Ryan Fallowfield

84'

E. Dieseruvwe← J. Wilson

85'

C. Miller← E. Francis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HarrogateSalford

Overview

41%Possession59%

14Total Shots16

5Corners9

18Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots16

5On Target6

4Off Target3

5Blocked7

9Inside Box6

5Outside Box10

Passing

41%Possession59%

369Total Passes518

241Accurate Passes393

65%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0