Harrogate Town 3–1 Notts County: Result & Stats

Harrogate Town

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Notts County

12/16/2023

League Two · Round 22EnviroVent Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Harrogate Town37%

×Draw25%

Notts County38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harrogate TownExpected goals in this matchNotts County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.42

Harrogate Town

1.40

Notts County

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 94 away

1.19

creates per match

1.38

1.47

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Harrogate Town

1.19

Notts County

1.38

allows per match

Harrogate Town

1.47

Notts County

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Notts County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Notts County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw

62%

Harrogate Town or Notts County

75%

Draw or Notts County

63%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

17%

Notts County wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

75%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

41%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

17%

Notts County 1+ goals

76%

Notts County 2+ goals

41%

Notts County 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

49%

Notts County (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 138 matches

Notts County away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.60 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.19 + Notts County defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Notts County attack 1.38 + Harrogate Town defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Harrogate Town scores more

37%

level

25%

Notts County scores more

38%

Notts County at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff