Harrogate Town 0–1 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Harrogate Town

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cheltenham

W. Boyle 43'

2/9/2021

League Two · Round 22CNG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Harrogate Town37%

×Draw27%

Cheltenham36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harrogate TownExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.27

Harrogate Town

1.30

Cheltenham

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.20

creates per match

1.01

1.53

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Harrogate Town

1.20

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Harrogate Town

1.53

Cheltenham

1.41

-0.64scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Harrogate Town-0.64scores less

Cheltenham+0.09on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw

64%

Harrogate Town or Cheltenham

73%

Draw or Cheltenham

63%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

17%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

73%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

37%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

14%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

72%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

36%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

51%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 9 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.20 + Cheltenham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Harrogate Town defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Harrogate Town scores more

37%

level

27%

Cheltenham scores more

36%

Harrogate Town at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Harrogate Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

W. Boyle

Cheltenham · D

7.6

Match Events

30'

S. Long← C. Clements

43'

W. Boyle↳ S. Long

74'

J. Muldoon← J. McPake

74'

R. Fallowfield← W. Burrell

80'

L. Sercombe← F. Azaz

81'

I. Vassilev← A. May

89'

J. Andrews← J. Lawlor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HarrogateCheltenham

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots9

5Corners3

11Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots9

1On Target3

6Off Target2

4Blocked4

7Inside Box6

4Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

393Total Passes367

230Accurate Passes190

59%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls12

2Offsides2