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Haro Deportivo vs Arnedo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Arnedo
Arnedo
12/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 13Estadio Municipal El Mazo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Haro Deportivo37%
×Draw26%
Arnedo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haro Deportivo
1.36
Arnedo
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 95 away

creates per match

Haro Deportivo
1.52
Arnedo
1.63

allows per match

Haro Deportivo
1.12
Arnedo
1.20

finishing

Haro Deportivo+0.00on par
Arnedo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haro Deportivo ↓

Arnedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Haro Deportivo or draw
62%
Haro Deportivo or Arnedo
74%
Draw or Arnedo
63%

Winning margin

Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
17%
Arnedo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
74%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
39%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
16%
Arnedo 1+ goals
75%
Arnedo 2+ goals
40%
Arnedo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
49%
Arnedo (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haro Deportivo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.12 · 81 matches

Arnedo away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.20 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haro Deportivo attack 1.52 + Arnedo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

Arnedo attack 1.63 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Haro Deportivo scores more
37%
level
26%
Arnedo scores more
38%

Arnedo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Arnedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haro Deportivo vs Arnedo

Arnedo beat Haro Deportivo 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Mazo in Haro.