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Hard vs Bezau — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Hard
Hard
CANC
22:00
Bezau
Bezau
5/8/2020Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 25Waldstadion Hard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Hard58%
×Draw20%
Bezau22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hard
2.33
Bezau
1.39

Hard creates 68% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 46 away

creates per match

Hard
2.19
Bezau
1.30

allows per match

Hard
1.47
Bezau
2.46

finishing

Hard+0.00on par
Bezau+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hard ↓

Bezau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Hard or draw
78%
Hard or Bezau
80%
Draw or Bezau
42%

Winning margin

Hard wins by 2+
37%
Bezau wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hard 1+ goals
90%
Hard 2+ goals
67%
Hard 3+ goals
41%
Bezau 1+ goals
75%
Bezau 2+ goals
40%
Bezau 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hard (draw refunded)
72%
Bezau (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hard at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.47 · 86 matches

Bezau away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hard attack 2.19 + Bezau defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.33

Bezau attack 1.30 + Hard defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hard scores more
58%
level
20%
Bezau scores more
22%

Hard at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hard face Bezau (Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga)

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga returns with Hard hosting Bezau. Match starts May 8, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hard host Bezau at Waldstadion Hard.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.